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The Punjab Kings (PBKS) take on the Delhi Capitals in their penultimate group stage of the season, which is a must-win for their playoff hopes. Currently placed 8th on the points table, PBKS is one of five teams aside from the already qualified Gujarat Titans that can cross the 16-point threshold usually required to qualify.
They have six wins and six losses in twelve matches with a Net Run Rate of -0.268. RCB, RR, and KKR are three teams also on twelve points but have a better NRR than PBKS. However, RR and KKR have played 13 matches, and the maximum number of points they can get to is only 14, and they’ll need a lot to go their way to qualify.
PBKS’ Qualification Scenario if they win both their remaining games
If PBKS win both their remaining matches, they have an excellent chance of making it to the playoffs for the first time since IPL 2014. However, they would also need to increase their Net Run Rate, with MI and RCB also mathematically capable of matching PBKS’ maximum points total, in which case NRR becomes crucial.
LSG and CSK are both on 15 points heading into their final group stage matches against KKR and DC, respectively, and PBKS will desperately hope that either or both of those teams loses their last league match.
If that happens and PBKS win both their remaining matches, they are assured a place in the top four and could even qualify in the Top two, provided they have a better NRR than any other team that collects 16 points.
RCB and MI are the closest threats to PBKS as both these teams can finish on 16 points, although MI doing it is more likely as they need one win compared to RCB’s two. However, RCB has a better NRR than both MI and PBKS, courtesy of their recent win over RR, and if they do get to 16 points, they are likely to finish higher than PBKS and MI.
Therefore, PBKS’ best-case scenario would be for LSG, RCB, MI, and CSK to drop points in their remaining matches, with a good mix of results capable of even taking them to 2nd place.
However, what happens if PBKS lose one of their two remaining matches?
PBKS’ Qualification Scenario if they win only one of their remaining two games
If PBKS loses one of their two remaining matches, their chances of qualification will drop very low as they will only have 14 points on the board. If that’s the case, they will need MI to lose their last match and RCB to lose at least one of their two league games and finish with an NRR less than that of PBKS.
RR and KKR are also threats to PBKS if they finish with only 14 points, and they’ll need to ensure that their NRR is better than that of these two sides as well.
What are PBKS’ qualifying chances for the playoffs?
Even if PBKS win their remaining two matches, they aren’t guaranteed to qualify for the playoffs, and that sums up the situation they’re in. While they have control over their fate to an extent, they still have to rely on the results of other teams to confirm their qualification.
Not to mention that to get to 16 points, they’d have to win a hat-trick of games(including their most recent one against DC), and they’re yet to do that this season.
In terms of odds, PBKS has around a 20-25% chance of making it to the playoffs, and the Shikhar Dhawan-led side will want to break their streak of not qualifying by winning their last two matches.
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