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In the space of a few days, the Royal Challengers Bangalore’s (RCB) chances of making the playoffs have massively improved, with their fate very much in their own hands. With six wins and as many losses in twelve matches, and a positive Net Run Rate (NRR) to go along with it, this is the right time for RCB to peak.
Spurred by a stellar bowling effort against the Rajasthan Royals that gave them a big NRR boost, RCB is assured qualification to the playoffs if they win both their remaining group-stage games and could even sneak through with one win if other results go their way.
The first of those two crunch games comes away from home at the Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium in Hyderabad as they take on Sunrisers Hyderabad, who have already been knocked out of the tournament.
RCB’s Qualification Scenario if they win Both Games
Due to their superior Net Run Rate of +0.166 in comparison to Mumbai Indians (-0.128), the only other side in contention to reach 16 points, RCB is almost guaranteed to qualify if they win both their remaining matches because they’ll know the exact margin of victory and other parameters required to boost their NRR if needed.
While a 3rd or 4th placed finish looks likely, RCB could even make the top two if some results go their way. CSK and LSG are the two teams on 15 points, and if they lose their final group stage games, RCB could finish 2nd on the points table to play Qualifier 1 against the Gujarat Titans.
The Mumbai Indians also become a crucial factor to where RCB finish because they only need one win to get 16 points, and if they register a resounding one, their increase in NRR could trouble Faf Du Plessis and Co.
However, having already won against RR, RCB would need a hat-trick of wins to get to this 16-point mark, and for a team that has had consistency issues, that is a tall order. It’s more likely they win one of their next two matches, so let’s look at their qualification prospects in that case.
RCB’s Qualification Scenario if they win One of their remaining two games
The Punjab Kings losing to the Delhi Capitals makes RCB qualifying even with one win from their remaining two matches, a genuine possibility. However, this scenario will see them finish with only 14 points, and with three teams already having more than that, RCB will have to settle for a 4th place finish.
In this scenario, they will have to fend off several other teams vying for that 4th playoff spot with 14 points, with KKR, RR, and PBKS also capable of getting to 14 points with a win in their respective last games. While RCB’s NRR is better than all those teams, the one defeat they suffer in this case makes it possible for any of these teams to overtake them.
That’s why if they are to lose one match, the SRH match would be better as their last game is the 70th and final group stage match, and they’ll know what they require to qualify in exact terms. They’ll also be playing in front of home fans against a possibly rotated GT side that has already topped the group stage, further bolstering their chances of winning that game.
However, none of this matters if the Mumbai Indians don’t lose their remaining fixture against Sunrisers Hyderabad because if they don’t, they’ll finish on 16 points, and with LSG, CSK, and GT already above the 14-point mark, RCB will be knocked out.
Therefore, while RCB is the most likely to qualify even with 14 points, they need to rely on a favor from SRH and possibly some other teams.
RCB’s Chances of Making the Playoffs
RCB’s chances of making the playoffs are better than KKR, RR, and PBKS. However, while they have their fate in their own hands, winning back-to-back games is not easy, especially for a team that has plenty of chinks in their armor. MI is better placed to qualify for the playoffs and as are CSK and LSG.
With there being a possibility of RCB qualifying on their own or relying on SRH to help them out by beating MI, RCB has a 30-35% chance of making the playoffs a fourth successive time.
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